The Prediction Markets

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2.70 86%

Next is 3.00 at 50.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2.70
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.70
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.00
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.00
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket
2.90
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.90
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
2.30
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.30
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3.10
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.10
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.40
44.9%
Polymarket 44.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 89.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.40
Last price
44.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket
2.50
40.8%
Polymarket 40.8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 81.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50
Last price
40.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.30
21.3%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 40.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $246 (2.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.30
Last price
21.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$246 (2.46x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.20
20.6%
Polymarket 20.6%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 39.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $251 (2.51x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.20
Last price
20.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$251 (2.51x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.60
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.60
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
3.80
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.80
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Polymarket
3.60
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.60
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Polymarket
3.40
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.40
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.70
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.70
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: app.pyth.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.70
  • 3.00
  • 2.90

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 2.70 leads at 86%. Next is 3.00 at 50.5%. $35K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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