The Prediction Markets

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

770 89%

Next is 760 at 74.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
770
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
770
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$575
Trade this on Polymarket
760
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
760
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
780
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
780
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
750
48.7%
Polymarket 48.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $187 (1.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
750
Last price
48.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53.6¢
Sell Yes
43.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$187 (1.87x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
790
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
790
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
740
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
740
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
730
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
730
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
800
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
800
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket
720
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
720
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
710
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
710
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
700
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
700
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
810
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
810
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
820
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
820
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
830
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
830
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 770
  • 760
  • 780

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?". 770 leads at 89%. Next is 760 at 74.5%. $23K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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