The Prediction Markets

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$50K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

760 71%

Next is 765 at 61.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
760
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
760
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
765
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
765
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
755
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
755
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
770
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
770
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Polymarket
750
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
750
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
800
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
800
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
775
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
775
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
780
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
780
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
785
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
785
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
790
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
790
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
740
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
740
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
730
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
730
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
745
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
745
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
735
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
735
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
795
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
795
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 760
  • 765
  • 755

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 760 leads at 71%. Next is 765 at 61.5%. $50K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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