The Prediction Markets

What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

140 58.5%

Next is 142.50 at 49%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
140
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.2¢
Sell Yes
23.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
142.50
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
142.50
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
137.50
48.6%
Polymarket 48.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
137.50
Last price
48.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86.1¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$706
Trade this on Polymarket
160
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
160
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
170
47.2%
Polymarket 47.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
170
Last price
47.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Polymarket
150
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
150
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
152.50
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
152.50
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
130
24.6%
Polymarket 24.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
130
Last price
24.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
155
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
155
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
165
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
165
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
135
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
135
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
132.50
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
132.50
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
157.50
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
157.50
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
167.50
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
167.50
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 140
  • 142.50
  • 137.50

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 140 leads at 58.5%. Next is 142.50 at 49%. $10K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 19 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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