The Prediction Markets

What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in November 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

375 72%

Next is 405 at 68%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
375
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
375
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
405
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
405
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Polymarket
360
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
360
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$737
Trade this on Polymarket
420
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
420
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
345
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
345
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
435
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
435
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
330
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
330
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$733
Trade this on Polymarket
450
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
450
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
465
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
465
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
315
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
315
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
480
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
495
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
495
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
300
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
300
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
285
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
285
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
270
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
270
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 375
  • 405
  • 360

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in November 2026?". 375 leads at 72%. Next is 405 at 68%. $18K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in November 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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