Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
367.50 64.5%
Next is 420 at 49.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
367.5064.5%64.5%33¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 2 h ago96¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $104 (1.04x)367.5064.5%Polymarket 64.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
367.50
64.5%
64.5%
33¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
96¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
367.50
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 367.50
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $4K
42049.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 h ago99¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)42049.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
420
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
99¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
420
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 420
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
427.5049.5%49.5%0.1¢ bid, 98.8¢ askpolled, 2 h ago98.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)427.5049.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
427.50
49.5%
49.5%
0.1¢ bid, 98.8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
98.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
427.50
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 427.50
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $14
382.5043%43%37¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 2 h ago49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)382.5043%Polymarket 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
382.50
43%
43%
37¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
382.50
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 382.50
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
412.5036.5%36.5%0.3¢ bid, 72.6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago72.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $138 (1.38x)412.5036.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
412.50
36.5%
36.5%
0.3¢ bid, 72.6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
72.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $138 (1.38x)
412.50
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 412.50
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $138 (1.38x)
- Volume
- $2K
352.5033%33%1¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 2 h ago65¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $154 (1.54x)352.5033%Polymarket 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
352.50
33%
33%
1¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
65¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
352.50
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 352.50
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $2K
397.5026%26%2¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 2 h ago52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)397.5026%Polymarket 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
397.50
26%
26%
2¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
397.50
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 397.50
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $9K
34517%17%— bid, 34¢ askpolled, 2 h ago34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)34517%Polymarket 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
345
17%
17%
— bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
345
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 345
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $4K
39017%17%12¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 h ago22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)39017%Polymarket 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
390
17%
17%
12¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
390
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 390
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $7K
40514.7%14.7%0.4¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 2 h ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)40514.7%Polymarket 14.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
405
14.7%
14.7%
0.4¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
405
14.7%
Polymarket 14.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 405
- Last price
- 14.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $4K
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
337.5012%12%1¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 2 h ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)337.5012%Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
337.50
12%
12%
1¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
337.50
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 337.50
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $2K
36012%12%9¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 2 h ago15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)36012%Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
360
12%
12%
9¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
360
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 360
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $2K
33010.5%10.5%1¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 2 h ago21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)33010.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
330
10.5%
10.5%
1¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
330
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 330
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $651
307.5010%10%1¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 h ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)307.5010%Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
307.50
10%
10%
1¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
307.50
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 307.50
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $246
31510%10%1¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 h ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)31510%Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
315
10%
10%
1¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
315
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 315
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $295
322.5010%10%1¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 h ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)322.5010%Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
322.50
10%
10%
1¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
322.50
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 322.50
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $283
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 367.50
- 420
- 427.50
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 19 2026?". 367.50 leads at 64.5%. Next is 420 at 49.5%. $49K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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