The Prediction Markets

What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12)

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
JD / Vance
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD / Vance
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Peter / Magyar
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter / Magyar
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir / Starmer
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir / Starmer
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Polymarket
Invasion
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Invasion
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Filibuster
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Free Tina Peters
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Free Tina Peters
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paper Tiger
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass / Shit
18.7%
Polymarket 18.7%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass / Shit
Last price
18.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ballroom
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ballroom
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Make Iran Great Again / MIGA
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make Iran Great Again / MIGA
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Predict / Prediction / Predicted
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Predict / Prediction / Predicted
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pam / Bondi
16.1%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pam / Bondi
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Bully of the Middle East
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bully of the Middle East
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crypto / Bitcoin
11.1%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Panican
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Panican
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • JD / Vance
  • Peter / Magyar
  • Keir / Starmer

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12)". JD / Vance last traded at 46%. Next is Peter / Magyar at 42.5%. $44K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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