This market has closed
Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
JD / Vance46%46%27¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago65¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $154 (1.54x)JD / Vance46%Polymarket 46%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
- Contract
- JD / Vance
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $3K
Peter / Magyar42.5%42.5%10¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Peter / Magyar42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
- Contract
- Peter / Magyar
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $129
Keir / Starmer41.5%41.5%9¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago74¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Keir / Starmer41.5%Polymarket 41.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
- Contract
- Keir / Starmer
- Last price
- 41.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $64
Invasion34.5%34.5%9¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Invasion34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
- Contract
- Invasion
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Filibuster31.5%31.5%4¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Filibuster31.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
- Contract
- Filibuster
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $5K
AI / Artificial Intelligence22%22%6¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)AI / Artificial Intelligence22%Polymarket 22%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
- Contract
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $37
Free Tina Peters21%21%12¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Free Tina Peters21%Polymarket 21%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
- Contract
- Free Tina Peters
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $4K
Paper Tiger21%21%5¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Paper Tiger21%Polymarket 21%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
- Contract
- Paper Tiger
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $5K
Ass / Shit18.7%18.7%7.4¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Ass / Shit18.7%Polymarket 18.7%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
- Contract
- Ass / Shit
- Last price
- 18.7%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ballroom18%18%7¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Ballroom18%Polymarket 18%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
- Contract
- Ballroom
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Make Iran Great Again / MIGA18%18%8¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Make Iran Great Again / MIGA18%Polymarket 18%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
- Contract
- Make Iran Great Again / MIGA
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $235
Predict / Prediction / Predicted16.5%16.5%9¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Predict / Prediction / Predicted16.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
- Contract
- Predict / Prediction / Predicted
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $5K
Pam / Bondi16.1%16.1%9.1¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Pam / Bondi16.1%Polymarket 16.1%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
- Contract
- Pam / Bondi
- Last price
- 16.1%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $97
Bully of the Middle East13%13%7¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Bully of the Middle East13%Polymarket 13%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
- Contract
- Bully of the Middle East
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $2K
Crypto / Bitcoin11.1%11.1%3.5¢ bid, 18.7¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago18.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $535 (5.35x)Crypto / Bitcoin11.1%Polymarket 11.1%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
- Contract
- Crypto / Bitcoin
- Last price
- 11.1%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $535 (5.35x)
- Volume
- $1K
Panican3.2%3.2%1.4¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 4711 h ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Panican3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
- Contract
- Panican
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:

- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- JD / Vance
- Peter / Magyar
- Keir / Starmer
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12)". JD / Vance last traded at 46%. Next is Peter / Magyar at 42.5%. $44K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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