The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during 60 Minutes?

Starts in 24 daysKickoff
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Keep America Great 97.5%

Next is Nuclear at 88%. The venues differ most on Fake News (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 34-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Keep America Great
97.5%
Polymarket 97.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keep America Great
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuclear
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran (3+ times)
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (3+ times)
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Russian
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 37 more outcomes
Biden
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Kalshi
Venezuela
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Shut Up
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shut Up
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
China / Chinese
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Clown
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clown
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Impeach / Impeachment
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gay
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gay
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Obama
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obama
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Third Term
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Third Term
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Communist / Communism
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Communist / Communism
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Autism
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Autism
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Nazi
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nazi
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ballroom
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ballroom
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Refund
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Refund
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Prediction
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prediction
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Shark
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shark
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Peace in the Middle East
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
ICE
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake NewsArb
41.7%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fake News
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 42¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Make Iran Great Again
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Supreme Court
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Rigged Election
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigged Election
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Epstein
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epstein
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Social Security
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Security
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump Account
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump Account
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rocket Man
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rocket Man
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Crypto / Bitcoin
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Fake News on Polymarket at 42¢, sell on Kalshi at 55¢ (1300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 22, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 22, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Keep America Great
  • Nuclear
  • Iran (3+ times)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Keep America Great for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during 60 Minutes?". Keep America Great leads at 97.5%. Next is Nuclear at 88%. $21K has traded across 47 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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