The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his remarks at the UP Summit?

Closes
Nov 20, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Moon 85%

Next is Space Force at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Moon
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moon
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Space Force
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Space Force
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Mars
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mars
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Age
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Age
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran (3+ times)
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (3+ times)
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Manufacture / Manufacturing
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufacture / Manufacturing
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Drone
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drone
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon / Musk
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon / Musk
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
National Security
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Security
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Tesla / SpaceX
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tesla / SpaceX
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Made in America / American Made
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Chip / Semiconductor
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chip / Semiconductor
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI / ChatGPT
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Autonomous / Autonomy
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autonomous / Autonomy
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Taiwan
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Quantum
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quantum
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moon
  • Space Force
  • Mars

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his remarks at the UP Summit?". Moon leads at 85%. Next is Space Force at 75%. $1K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 20, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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