The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his Veterans Day remarks?

Closes
Nov 25, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hegseth 78%

Next is Nuclear at 65%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hegseth
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Medal of Honor
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Medal of Honor
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Homeless / Homelessness
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Homeless / Homelessness
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi
Vietnam
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vietnam
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Department of War
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Department of War
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Gold Star
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gold Star
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare / Health Care
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare / Health Care
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Biden
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Border
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Border
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Space Force
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Space Force
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Russian
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Drone
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drone
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace Through Strength
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace Through Strength
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Afghanistan
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afghanistan
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hegseth
  • Nuclear
  • Iran / Iranian

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his Veterans Day remarks?". Hegseth leads at 78%. Next is Nuclear at 65%. $2K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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