The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6?

Closed
Apr 6, 2026
Traded
$410K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 6, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 200 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Sleepy Joe
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4804 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ballroom
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4804 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ballroom
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Weather / Rain / Raining
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4804 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Weather / Rain / Raining
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: youtube.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sleepy Joe
  • Ballroom
  • Weather / Rain / Raining

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say during White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6? ". Sleepy Joe last traded at 37.5%. Next is Ballroom at 0.1%. $410K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 6, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the annual White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6, 2026. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/white-house-easter-egg-roll/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the Easter Egg Roll scheduled for April 6, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Easter Egg Roll scheduled for April 6, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official White House live stream video of the events, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@WhiteHouse/streams. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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