The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say in November?

Starts in 26 daysKickoff
Traded
$58K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Dividend / Stimulus 99%

Next is E15 at 99%. The venues differ most on Autism (Polymarket 45%, Kalshi 62%), a 17-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
E15
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
E15
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eli Lilly
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Lilly
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFC
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
UFC
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Aluminum
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aluminum
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Keep America Great
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keep America Great
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Space Force
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space Force
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Shut Up
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shut Up
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Rare Earth
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rare Earth
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
TrumpRx
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
TrumpRx
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Clown
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clown
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Ozempic / GLP-1
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ozempic / GLP-1
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Gay
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gay
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Autism
57.8%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Autism
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Nazi
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nazi
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Third Term
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Third Term
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Refund
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Refund
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prediction
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prediction
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Peace in the Middle East
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Shark
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shark
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Whistleblower
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whistleblower
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Golden Dome
36.8%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 31¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60¢.

SMR / Small Modular Reactor
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Kalshi
Stablecoin
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stablecoin
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epstein
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
Manufactured Housing
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufactured Housing
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Rocket Man
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rocket Man
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dividend / Stimulus
  • E15
  • Eli Lilly

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dividend / Stimulus for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say in November?". Dividend / Stimulus leads at 99%. Next is E15 at 99%. $58K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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