This market has closed
Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Keir / Starmer55.5%55.5%21¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Keir / Starmer55.5%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
- Contract
- Keir / Starmer
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $302
Predict / Prediction / Predicted41.5%41.5%15¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago68¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Predict / Prediction / Predicted41.5%Polymarket 41.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
- Contract
- Predict / Prediction / Predicted
- Last price
- 41.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $301
Lee / Zeldin39.5%39.5%7¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Lee / Zeldin39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
- Contract
- Lee / Zeldin
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $74
Two weeks36.5%36.5%22¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Two weeks36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
- Contract
- Two weeks
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $7K
King Charles22.5%22.5%20¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)King Charles22.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
- Contract
- King Charles
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $556
Pam / Bondi20.5%20.5%3¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Pam / Bondi20.5%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
- Contract
- Pam / Bondi
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $4K
Tube17.5%17.5%6¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Tube17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
- Contract
- Tube
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $3K
Common Sense / Commonsense14.7%14.7%3¢ bid, 26.4¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago26.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $379 (3.79x)Common Sense / Commonsense14.7%Polymarket 14.7%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
- Contract
- Common Sense / Commonsense
- Last price
- 14.7%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 26.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $379 (3.79x)
- Volume
- $4K
Boots on the ground14.5%14.5%6¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Boots on the ground14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
- Contract
- Boots on the ground
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $618
Kharg Island13.5%13.5%9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Kharg Island13.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
- Contract
- Kharg Island
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $706
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Crypto / Bitcoin13%13%3¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Crypto / Bitcoin13%Polymarket 13%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
- Contract
- Crypto / Bitcoin
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $4K
Coffee8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Coffee8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
- Contract
- Coffee
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $546
Witch8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Witch8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
- Contract
- Witch
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $7K
Delcy / Rodriguez7.5%7.5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Delcy / Rodriguez7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
- Contract
- Delcy / Rodriguez
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Six Seven7%7%5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Six Seven7%Polymarket 7%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
- Contract
- Six Seven
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $9K
Potato3.5%3.5%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4710 h ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Potato3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
- Contract
- Potato
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 196 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $242
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Keir / Starmer
- Predict / Prediction / Predicted
- Lee / Zeldin
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say this week? (April 12)". Keir / Starmer last traded at 55.5%. Next is Predict / Prediction / Predicted at 41.5%. $153K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More politics markets
See all politics markets- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Gavin Newsom16.6%$1.3B traded
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance44.2%$716.0M traded
- 2028 Democratic nominee for President?Jon Ossoff16%$246.3M traded
- Netanyahu out by...?December 3141.5%$124.6M traded
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro76.7%$98.7M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?J.D. Vance21%$76.5M traded