The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say this week? (May 17)

FinalKickoff
Traded
$93K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 17, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Make America Great Again
22.3%
Polymarket 24.4%(22.3% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 38.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $257 (2.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make America Great Again
Last price
24.4%
Fair, margin removed
22.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
38.9¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$257 (2.57x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Midterm Election
19.6%
Polymarket 21.5%(19.7% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Midterm Election
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Silicon Valley
13.2%
Polymarket 14.5%(13.3% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 28.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $351 (3.51x)
Polymarket
Contract
Silicon Valley
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$351 (3.51x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Magnet
11.5%
Polymarket 12.6%(11.5% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magnet
Last price
12.6%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
Uncle / Unc
7.3%
Polymarket 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Uncle / Unc
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Polymarket
Rare earth / Mineral
6.9%
Polymarket 7.5%(6.9% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rare earth / Mineral
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Shipbuilding
5.9%
Polymarket 6.5%(5.9% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shipbuilding
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
Traitor
5.5%
Polymarket 6%(5.5% fair)polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Traitor
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Blackwell
4.1%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blackwell
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Hantavirus
3.7%
Polymarket 4%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hantavirus
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Make America Great Again
  • Midterm Election
  • Silicon Valley

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say this week? (May 17)". Make America Great Again last traded at 22.3%. Next is Midterm Election at 19.6%. $93K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets