The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say this week? (May 3)

FinalKickoff
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Make America Great Again
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Make America Great Again
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lunatic
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lunatic
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Radical Left
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Radical Left
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Polymarket
Alaska
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alaska
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
Peace in the Middle East
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Jerome Too Late
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jerome Too Late
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Polymarket
Harry
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
TrumpRX
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
TrumpRX
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Peacemaker
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peacemaker
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
Failing New York Times
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Failing New York Times
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Drill baby drill
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill baby drill
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Paper tiger
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paper tiger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Make America Great Again
  • Lunatic
  • Radical Left

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say this week? (May 3)". Make America Great Again last traded at 71%. Next is Lunatic at 70.5%. $33K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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