The Prediction Markets

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

Closed
Jul 3, 2026
Traded
$169K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
May 15–22
48.6%
Polymarket 50.9%(48.6% fair)polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 55.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 15–22
Last price
50.9%
Fair, margin removed
48.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
55.9¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 23–29
39.5%
Polymarket 41.5%(39.6% fair)polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 54.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $183 (1.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 23–29
Last price
41.5%
Fair, margin removed
39.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
54.6¢
Sell Yes
28.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$183 (1.83x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 30–June 5
5.9%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 30–June 5
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 6–12
2.5%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 6–12
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 13–19
1.7%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 13–19
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
After July 3
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
After July 3
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 20–26
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 20–26
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 27–July 3
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 27–July 3
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • May 15–22
  • May 23–29
  • May 30–June 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?". May 15–22 last traded at 48.6%. Next is May 23–29 at 39.5%. $169K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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