The Prediction Markets

When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$288K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 97.5%

Next is Before Sep 1, 2027 at 97.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Sep 1, 2027
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Sep 1, 2027
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
J.B. Pritzker
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Feb 1, 2027
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg
78.2%
Polymarket 97.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
97.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 71 more outcomes
Chris Christie
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Christie
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Cory Booker
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Shapiro
65.7%
Polymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$721
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron DeSantis
63.4%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 27%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
62.6%
Polymarket 83%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Kemp
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphael Warnock
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel
59.9%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
57.9%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72.9¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
57.5%
Polymarket 83%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
52.1%
Polymarket 91.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 23%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
91.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.3¢
Sell Yes
91.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Kelly
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
46%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
45.9%
Polymarket 58%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala Harris
45%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
44.6%
Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Gaetz
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
36.5%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$915
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Gretchen Whitmer
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$992
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Yang
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Hawley
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Phil Murphy
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Polis
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Biden
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Bannon
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elise Stefanik
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikki Haley
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
23%
Polymarket 58%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 8.3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Britt
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
19.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Gina Raimondo
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Greg Abbott
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Tulsi Gabbard
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$969
Trade this on Polymarket
Don Lemon
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don Lemon
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket
Liz Cheney
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
17.3%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 18.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
18.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
35.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$284 (2.84x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Ro Khanna
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristi Noem
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Candace Owens
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Polymarket
John Fetterman
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Cuban
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Pence
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Roy Cooper
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron Donalds
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
George Clooney
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Clooney
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
12.5%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Polymarket
Oprah Winfrey
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oprah Winfrey
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Beto O’Rourke
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beto O’Rourke
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
John Thune
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Obama
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernie Sanders
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chelsea Clinton
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chelsea Clinton
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Brady
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Stewart
7.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
7.9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
LeBron James
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$776
Trade this on Polymarket
MrBeast
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
MrBeast
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Polymarket
Erika Kirk
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
5.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Walz
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hillary Clinton
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Barack Obama
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Sep 1, 2027
  • Before Jun 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2028 for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 97.5%. Next is Before Sep 1, 2027 at 97.5%. $288K has traded across 81 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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