The Prediction Markets

When will the Knesset elect a Speaker?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 49 days
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

December 31 95.6%

Next is November 30 at 95.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
93.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$752
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 18, 2026
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 18, 2026
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Matan Kahana
88%
Polymarket 88%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gadi Eisenkot
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 13, 2026
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 13, 2026
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Lapid
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 13
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 13
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Hili Tropper
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Polymarket
Amir Ohana
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oded Forer
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oded Forer
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali Bennett
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Orna Barbivai
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orna Barbivai
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Elazar Stern
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
Gilad Kariv
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gilad Kariv
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Polymarket
No speaker by Feb 28
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
No speaker by Feb 28
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Ahmad Tibi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ahmad Tibi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avi Dichter
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avi Dichter
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Amsalem
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Amsalem
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eitan Ginzburg
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eitan Ginzburg
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Eli Cohen
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Merav Ben Ari
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merav Ben Ari
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$970
Trade this on Polymarket
Mickey Levy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mickey Levy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
Miki Zohar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miki Zohar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
Ofir Katz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofir Katz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yariv Levin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yariv Levin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yuli Edelstein
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yuli Edelstein
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Knesset

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • November 30
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will the Knesset elect a Speaker?". December 31 leads at 95.6%. Next is November 30 at 95.5%. $44K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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When will the Knesset elect a Speaker? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets