The Prediction Markets

When will Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

China 85.5%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 30%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
China
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$415K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
15.9%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Polymarket
No meeting by December 31
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
No meeting by December 31
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$566K
Trade this on Polymarket
United States
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$138K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gulf country
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gulf country
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket
Turkey
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turkey
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Australia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Australia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
Belarus
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belarus
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
Other EU country
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Other EU country
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, The White House, Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • China
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Before Dec 1, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list China for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet?". China leads at 85.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 30%. $2.5M has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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When will Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets