The Prediction Markets

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 5, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Flavio Bolsonaro
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 461 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Flavio Bolsonaro
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$269K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 461 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$897K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Haddad
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Haddad
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jair Bolsonaro
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jair Bolsonaro
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Bolsonaro
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Bolsonaro
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Renan Santos
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renan Santos
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
Romeu Zema
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Romeu Zema
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ronaldo Caiado
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ronaldo Caiado
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tarcisio de Frietas
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 461 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tarcisio de Frietas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Flavio Bolsonaro
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
  • Fernando Haddad

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?". Flavio Bolsonaro last traded at 100%. Next is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 100%. $1.5M has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 5, 2026.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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