The Prediction Markets

Which Dems will underperform Kamala?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tina Kotek: OR-Gov 96%

Next is Troy Jackson: ME-Sen at 80%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Tina Kotek: OR-Gov
96%
Polymarket 96%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tina Kotek: OR-Gov
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Troy Jackson: ME-Sen
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Troy Jackson: ME-Sen
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keisha Lance Bottoms: GA-Gov
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keisha Lance Bottoms: GA-Gov
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Peggy Flanagan: MN-Sen
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peggy Flanagan: MN-Sen
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed: MI-Sen
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed: MI-Sen
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Pappas: NH-Sen
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Pappas: NH-Sen
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Angie Nixon: FL-Sen
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angie Nixon: FL-Sen
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Jolly: FL-Gov
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Jolly: FL-Gov
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tina Kotek: OR-Gov
  • Troy Jackson: ME-Sen
  • Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Dems will underperform Kamala?". Tina Kotek: OR-Gov leads at 96%. Next is Troy Jackson: ME-Sen at 80%. $19K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If a candidate's vote share is identical to that of Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "No". In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, or a candidate withdraws from the race in a manner that causes them to be permanently removed from the general election ballot, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets