The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

Closed
Sep 14, 2026
Traded
$260K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 76.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
76.9¢
Sell Yes
76.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green Party (MP)
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Party (MP)
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Centre Party (C)
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Centre Party (C)
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Left Party (V)
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Left Party (V)
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberals (L)
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberals (L)
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moderate Party (M)
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moderate Party (M)
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christian Democrats (KD)
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christian Democrats (KD)
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sweden Democrats (SD)
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 92 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
  • Green Party (MP)
  • Centre Party (C)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?". Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) last traded at 76.5%. Next is Green Party (MP) at 72.5%. $260K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 14, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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