The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Closed
Sep 21, 2026
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Linke
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linke
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
SPD
69.2%
Polymarket 69.2%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
SPD
Last price
69.2%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
48.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Grüne
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grüne
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
CDU
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
CDU
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
FDP
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
FDP
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
AfD
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
AfD
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
FW
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
FW
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
BSW
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 93 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
BSW
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Linke
  • SPD
  • Grüne

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?". Linke last traded at 74.5%. Next is SPD at 69.2%. $29K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 21, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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