The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

Closed
Sep 7, 2026
Traded
$60K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 7, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
AfD
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
AfD
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Grüne
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 56.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $178 (1.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grüne
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
56.2¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$178 (1.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
BSW
26.8%
Polymarket 26.8%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
BSW
Last price
26.8%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
48.2¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
SPD
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
SPD
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
CDU
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
CDU
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
FDP
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
FDP
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Linke
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 84 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linke
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • AfD
  • Grüne
  • BSW

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?". AfD last traded at 56.5%. Next is Grüne at 29.5%. $60K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 7, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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