The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Starts in 15 daysKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Green Party 55.5%

Next is National Party at 50%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Green Party
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Party
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Polymarket
National Party
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Party
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour Party
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour Party
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
New Zealand First Party
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand First Party
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACT New Zealand
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Te Pāti Māori
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Green Party
  • National Party
  • Labour Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?". Green Party leads at 55.5%. Next is National Party at 50%. $3K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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