The Prediction Markets

Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?

Closed
Nov 8, 2022
Traded
$1.8M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Nov 8, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?". $1.8M has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Nov 8, 2022.

The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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