The Prediction Markets

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Montana 50.1%

Next is Iowa at 21%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Montana
50.1%
Polymarket 50.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 55.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Montana
Last price
50.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55.9¢
Sell Yes
44.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Iowa
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iowa
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$866
Trade this on Polymarket
Michigan
20.7%
Polymarket 20.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 27.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $369 (3.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
20.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.1¢
Sell Yes
14.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$369 (3.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kansas
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alaska
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alaska
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nebraska
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Texas
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Texas
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ohio (Special)
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ohio (Special)
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ohio (Special)
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Florida (Special)
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
South Carolina
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Polymarket
Georgia
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Georgia
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Hampshire
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mississippi
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Polymarket
North Carolina
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Carolina
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Polymarket
Virginia
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginia
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colorado
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Polymarket
New Mexico
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Montana
  • Iowa
  • Michigan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Senate races will be within 1%?". Montana leads at 50.1%. Next is Iowa at 21%. $26K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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