The Prediction Markets

Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader?

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 50 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
15 h ago
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What the markets expect

Kirsten Gillibrand 90%

Next is John Fetterman at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Kirsten Gillibrand
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kirsten Gillibrand
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Fetterman
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kelly
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Blumenthal
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Blumenthal
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Gallego
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Kalshi
Maggie Hassan
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maggie Hassan
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Warner
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Warner
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Heinrich
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Heinrich
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphael Warnock
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Colom
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Colom
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Abdul El-Sayed
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
Elissa Slotkin
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Van Hollen
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Bernie Sanders
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • John Fetterman
  • Mark Kelly

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader?". Kirsten Gillibrand leads at 90%. Next is John Fetterman at 88%. $3K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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