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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Abdul El-Sayed 99%
Next is Elizabeth Warren at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Abdul El-Sayed99%99%60¢ bid, — askpolled, 59s agoNo askAbdul El-Sayed99%Kalshi 99%polled, 59s ago
Abdul El-Sayed
99%
99%
60¢ bid, — ask
polled, 59s ago
No ask
Abdul El-Sayed
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 59s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
Elizabeth Warren97%97%27¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Elizabeth Warren97%Kalshi 97%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Elizabeth Warren
97%
97%
27¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Elizabeth Warren
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elizabeth Warren
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $240
Annie Andrews69.5%69.5%40¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Annie Andrews69.5%Kalshi 69.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Annie Andrews
69.5%
69.5%
40¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Annie Andrews
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Annie Andrews
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Troy Jackson69.5%69.5%40¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Troy Jackson69.5%Kalshi 69.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Troy Jackson
69.5%
69.5%
40¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Troy Jackson
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Troy Jackson
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Peggy Flanagan60%60%6¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 59s ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Peggy Flanagan60%Kalshi 60%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Peggy Flanagan
60%
60%
6¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Peggy Flanagan
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Peggy Flanagan
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Adam Hamilton49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Adam Hamilton49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Adam Hamilton
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Adam Hamilton
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Adam Hamilton
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Bernie Sanders49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Bernie Sanders49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bernie Sanders
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bernie Sanders
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Cory Booker49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Cory Booker49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Cory Booker
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Cory Booker
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
James Talarico49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)James Talarico49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
James Talarico
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
James Talarico
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
John Fetterman49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)John Fetterman49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
John Fetterman
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
John Fetterman
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Fetterman
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Juliana Stratton49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Juliana Stratton49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Juliana Stratton
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Juliana Stratton
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Juliana Stratton
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Kirsten Gillibrand49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Kirsten Gillibrand49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kirsten Gillibrand
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kirsten Gillibrand
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kirsten Gillibrand
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Maggie Hassan49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Maggie Hassan49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Maggie Hassan
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Maggie Hassan
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maggie Hassan
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Mark Kelly49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Mark Kelly49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mark Kelly
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mark Kelly
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Mark Warner49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Mark Warner49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mark Warner
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mark Warner
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Warner
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Martin Heinrich49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Martin Heinrich49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Martin Heinrich
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Martin Heinrich
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martin Heinrich
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Raphael Warnock49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Raphael Warnock49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Raphael Warnock
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Raphael Warnock
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Richard Blumenthal49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Richard Blumenthal49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Richard Blumenthal
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Richard Blumenthal
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Richard Blumenthal
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Ruben Gallego49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Ruben Gallego49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Ruben Gallego
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Ruben Gallego
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ruben Gallego
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Scott Colom49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 59s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Scott Colom49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Scott Colom
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Scott Colom
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Scott Colom
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Elissa Slotkin33%33%7¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 59s ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Elissa Slotkin33%Kalshi 33%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Elissa Slotkin
33%
33%
7¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Elissa Slotkin
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elissa Slotkin
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $200
Jon Ossoff20%20%2¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 59s ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Jon Ossoff20%Kalshi 20%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Jon Ossoff
20%
20%
2¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Jon Ossoff
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $400
Mary Peltola16%16%15¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 59s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Mary Peltola16%Kalshi 16%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Mary Peltola
16%
16%
15¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Mary Peltola
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mary Peltola
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $200
Andy Kim11%11%— bid, 92¢ askpolled, 59s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Andy Kim11%Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Andy Kim
11%
11%
— bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Andy Kim
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Kim
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $200
Chris Murphy11%11%— bid, 92¢ askpolled, 59s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Chris Murphy11%Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Chris Murphy
11%
11%
— bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Chris Murphy
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Murphy
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Elizabeth Warren
- Annie Andrews
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?". Abdul El-Sayed leads at 99%. Next is Elizabeth Warren at 97%. $1K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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