The Prediction Markets

Which states will pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

New York 82.5%

Next is Wisconsin at 75.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
New York
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Illinois
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illinois
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Maryland
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maryland
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
56.5%
Kalshi 56.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mississippi
51.5%
Kalshi 51.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
South Carolina
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Kansas
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Jersey
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Jersey
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Virginia
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Virginia
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Missouri
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: each state's official government websites, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • New York
  • Wisconsin
  • Illinois

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will pass a new congressional map before the 2028 election?". New York leads at 82.5%. Next is Wisconsin at 75.5%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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