The Prediction Markets

Which states will Trump visit in Nov 2026?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
50 min ago
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What the markets expect

New York 40%

Next is Missouri at 38.5%. The venues differ most on Hawaii (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 8%), a 2.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 51 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
New York
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Missouri
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missouri
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Arkansas
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Polymarket
Louisiana
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Polymarket
Michigan
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indiana
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket
Pennsylvania
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
West Virginia
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
West Virginia
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Colorado
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 35 more outcomes
Rhode Island
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rhode Island
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Polymarket
Georgia
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georgia
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Massachusetts
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Massachusetts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket
Wyoming
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wyoming
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Idaho
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Idaho
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Utah
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Portugal
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portugal
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Germany
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oregon
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 17.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $568 (5.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
17.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$568 (5.68x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hawaii
9.6%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 50 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 51 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

New Hampshire
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Saudi Arabia
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Mexico
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Italy
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vermont
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vermont
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oman
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oman
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
India
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
India
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mexico
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Korea
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Korea
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Venezuela
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Belarus
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belarus
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Syria
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Syria
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Canada
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pakistan
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pakistan
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taiwan
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lebanon
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lebanon
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official government sources of the state, official representatives or offices of Donald Trump, The New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • New York
  • Missouri
  • Arkansas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list New York for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Trump visit in Nov 2026?". New York leads at 40%. Next is Missouri at 38.5%. $1.0M has traded across 45 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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