The Prediction Markets

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$438K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Florida 98.6%

Next is California at 97.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Florida
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Florida
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
97.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
California
97.8%
Polymarket 97.8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
California
Last price
97.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Texas
97.4%
Polymarket 97.4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Texas
Last price
97.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
96.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Carolina
97.3%
Polymarket 97.3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Carolina
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
96.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ohio
95.3%
Polymarket 95.3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 96.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ohio
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.1¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Louisiana
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Utah
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alabama
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alabama
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maryland
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maryland
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
New York
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Kansas
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indiana
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indiana
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Missouri
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missouri
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Jersey
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Jersey
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wisconsin
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Georgia
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Georgia
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Carolina
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nebraska
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Illinois
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Illinois
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Virginia
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginia
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florida
  • California
  • Texas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?". Florida leads at 98.6%. Next is California at 97.8%. $438K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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