The Prediction Markets

Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth 66%

Next is Yes at 38.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
None
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
None
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Yes
  • Marco Rubio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Pete Hegseth for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?". Pete Hegseth leads at 66%. Next is Yes at 38.5%. $5K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to the name of the individual who leaves the Trump administration first. This market will resolve to "Rubio" if Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration before Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration. This market will resolve to "Hegseth" if Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration before Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration. An individual will be considered to have left the Trump administration if it is announced that they will leave the Trump Administration, or they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal will count as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If both individuals remain in the Trump administration uninterruptedly from market creation through December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both individuals announce their departure on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets