The Prediction Markets

Who will a House committee vote to subpoena before 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Donald Trump Jr. 74%

Next is Stephen Miller at 68%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Donald Trump Jr.
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Miller
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Kushner
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Todd Blanche
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon Musk
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Kash Patel
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Homan
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristi Noem
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pam Bondi
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pam Bondi
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Howard Lutnick
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Corey Lewandowski
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Lewandowski
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Russ Vought
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russ Vought
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Eric Trump
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Bessent
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
JD Vance
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donald Trump Jr.
  • Stephen Miller
  • Jared Kushner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will a House committee vote to subpoena before 2028?". Donald Trump Jr. leads at 74%. Next is Stephen Miller at 68%. $2K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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