The Prediction Markets

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Closed
Aug 18, 2026
Traded
$199K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Tom Begich
96.1%
Polymarket 96.1%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Begich
Last price
96.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernadette Wilson
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernadette Wilson
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Click Bishop
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Click Bishop
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Destry J. Payne Sr.
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Destry J. Payne Sr.
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Jessica Faircloth
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jessica Faircloth
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Gregg Brelsford
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gregg Brelsford
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Claman
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Claman
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dave Bronson
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dave Bronson
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruce Walden
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Walker
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Treg Taylor
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Treg Taylor
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lesil McGuire
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lesil McGuire
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Heilala
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Heilala
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Parkin
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Parkin
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Crum
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Crum
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shelley Hughes
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shelley Hughes
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Edna DeVries
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edna DeVries
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hank Kroll
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hank Kroll
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruce Walden
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruce Walden
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nancy Dahlstrom
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nancy Dahlstrom
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tom Begich
  • Bernadette Wilson
  • Click Bishop

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?". Tom Begich last traded at 96.1%. Next is Bernadette Wilson at 79.5%. $199K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 18, 2026.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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