The Prediction Markets

Who will be Brazilian finance minister after the election?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$186K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Geraldo Alckmin 36.4%

Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 34.5%. The venues differ most on Geraldo Alckmin (Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 27%), a 13-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Geraldo Alckmin
36.4%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geraldo Alckmin
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Geraldo Alckmin
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$426
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

No Next Minister by Feb 28
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rui Costa
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $155 (1.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rui Costa
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
64.6¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$155 (1.55x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Dario Durigan
21.9%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Durigan
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dario Durigan
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Avigdor Lieberman
21.3%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
21.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
20.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali Bennett
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
14.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
José Múcio
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Múcio
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Fonteles
11%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Fonteles
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Fonteles
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Fernando Haddad
8.8%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Haddad
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Haddad
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Aloizio Mercadante
7.2%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aloizio Mercadante
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Aloizio Mercadante
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aloizio Mercadante
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Show 23 more outcomes
Bruno Moretti
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Moretti
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaques Wagner
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaques Wagner
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogério Ceron
4.6%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogério Ceron
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rogério Ceron
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Gabriel Galípolo
4.2%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Galípolo
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Galípolo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Camilo Santana
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Camilo Santana
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Celso Amorim
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Celso Amorim
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Polymarket
Renan Filho
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renan Filho
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaul Meridor
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gleisi Hoffmann
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gleisi Hoffmann
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Paulo Guedes
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paulo Guedes
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Gadi Eizenkot
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaron Zelekha
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Simone Tebet
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Simone Tebet
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Polymarket
Bezalel Smotrich
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nir Barkat
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Lapid
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eli Cohen
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Golan
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hili Tropper
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moshe Feiglin
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Aloizio Mercadante asks 7¢ on Kalshi and bids 12¢ on Polymarket (500 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Geraldo Alckmin
  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Rui Costa

Live prices for Geraldo Alckmin

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Brazilian finance minister after the election?". Geraldo Alckmin leads at 36.4%. Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 34.5%. $186K has traded across 33 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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