The Prediction Markets

Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense 57.5%

Next is Kash Patel - FBI Director at 28%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kash Patel - FBI Director
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel - FBI Director
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Todd Blanche - Attorney General
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Blanche - Attorney General
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump - President
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump - President
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio - Secretary of State
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio - Secretary of State
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Russ Vought - OMB Director
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russ Vought - OMB Director
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: congress.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense
  • Kash Patel - FBI Director
  • Todd Blanche - Attorney General

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?". Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense leads at 57.5%. Next is Kash Patel - FBI Director at 28%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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