The Prediction Markets

Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Andy Beshear 25%

Next is Ron DeSantis at 24%. The venues differ most on Ted Cruz (Polymarket 17%, Kalshi 5%), a 12-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Andy Beshear
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron DeSantis
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 17s agoKalshi 24%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

J.D. Vance
23.5%
Polymarket 26%polled, 17s agoKalshi 21%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.

Donald J. Trump Jr.
23.2%
Polymarket 23.2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 45.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $219 (2.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
23.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$219 (2.19x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ro Khanna
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
15.3%
Polymarket 15.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
14.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
14%
Polymarket 17%polled, 17s agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Marco Rubio
12.5%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 17s agoKalshi 16%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11.1¢.

Show 40 more outcomes
Josh Shapiro
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala Harris
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
5.4%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 17s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Donald J. Trump Jr.
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Kent
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
John McEntee
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
John McEntee
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Massie
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
3.9%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 17s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
3.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Brian Kemp
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Christie
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Christie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Burgum
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elise Stefanik
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Greg Abbott
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gregory Bovino
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gregory Bovino
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivanka Trump
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Kushner
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Bezos
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Kent
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Kennedy
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Hawley
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Katie Britt
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Larry Hogan
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Larry Hogan
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Pence
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikki Haley
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Pratt
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Bannon
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Scott
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Cotton
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Youngkin
2.2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 17s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Jon Ossoff
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Stewart
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Ballotpedia
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andy Beshear
  • Ron DeSantis
  • J.D. Vance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Andy Beshear for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?". Andy Beshear leads at 25%. Next is Ron DeSantis at 24%. $36K has traded across 50 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets