The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hugo Motta 55.3%

Next is Nikolas Ferreira at 20.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Hugo Motta 55.3%Nikolas Ferreira 20.7%No president by Feb 28 12.4%Kim Kataguiri 7.2%Sóstenes Cavalcante 2.5%Pedro Lupion 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Hugo Motta
55.3%
Polymarket 76%(55.3% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hugo Motta
Last price
76%
Fair, margin removed
55.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolas Ferreira
20.7%
Polymarket 28.5%(20.7% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolas Ferreira
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
No president by Feb 28
12.4%
Polymarket 17%(12.4% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
No president by Feb 28
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kataguiri
7.2%
Polymarket 9.9%(7.2% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kataguiri
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Sóstenes Cavalcante
2.5%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.5% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sóstenes Cavalcante
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket
Pedro Lupion
1.9%
Polymarket 2.7%(1.9% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Lupion
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hugo Motta
  • Nikolas Ferreira
  • No president by Feb 28

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?". Hugo Motta leads at 55.3%. Next is Nikolas Ferreira at 20.7%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

Following the Brazilian general election held on October 4, 2026, Brazil's Chamber of Deputies is set to hold an internal election for the position of President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve according to the name of the candidate that becomes President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Presidents appointed before the election will not count. If this election does not take place or the results of this election are not known by February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No president by Feb 28". This market will resolve based on official information from the Chamber of Deputies of Brazil or a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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