The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next President of the Brazilian Senate?

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Davi Alcolumbre 36.1%

Next is Rogério Marinho at 20.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Davi Alcolumbre 36.1%Rogério Marinho 20.9%Tereza Cristina 20.5%No president by Feb 28 19.7%Renan Calheiros 2.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Davi Alcolumbre
36.1%
Polymarket 47.5%(36.1% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Davi Alcolumbre
Last price
47.5%
Fair, margin removed
36.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogério Marinho
20.9%
Polymarket 27.5%(20.9% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogério Marinho
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Tereza Cristina
20.5%
Polymarket 27%(20.5% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tereza Cristina
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
No president by Feb 28
19.7%
Polymarket 26%(19.7% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $206 (2.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
No president by Feb 28
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
19.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$206 (2.06x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Renan Calheiros
2.8%
Polymarket 3.7%(2.8% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renan Calheiros
Last price
3.7%
Fair, margin removed
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Davi Alcolumbre
  • Rogério Marinho
  • Tereza Cristina

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next President of the Brazilian Senate?". Davi Alcolumbre leads at 36.1%. Next is Rogério Marinho at 20.9%. $1K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

Following the Brazilian general election held on October 4, 2026, the Federal Senate of Brazil is set to hold an internal election for the position of President of the Brazilian Senate. This market will resolve according to the name of the candidate that becomes President of the Brazilian Senate as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Presidents appointed before the election will not count. If this election does not take place or the results of this election are not known by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No president by Feb 28". This market will resolve based on official information from the Federal Senate of Brazil or a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Who will be the next President of the Brazilian Senate? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets