The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 26 months
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth 51%

Next is Marco Rubio at 28.3%. The venues differ most on Pete Hegseth (Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 68%), a 49-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
51%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Marco RubioArb
28.3%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Christopher Phelan
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Phelan
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Kratsios
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Kratsios
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard Lutnick
18.3%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

John Healey
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Healey
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miatta Fahnbulleh
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Bessent
13%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Jamieson Greer
13%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Keith Sonderling
13%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keith Sonderling
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Sonderling
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Show 41 more outcomes
Doug Burgum
13%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

John Ratcliffe
12.8%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Doug Collins
12.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Stephen Miller
11.5%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 40¢.

Mike Waltz
11.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Scott Turner
11.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Kelly LoefflerArb
10.6%
Polymarket 14.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
14.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.9¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$559 (5.59x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.3¢ nets 440 bps before fees.

Jay Clayton
9.3%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jay Clayton
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jay Clayton
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Linda McMahon
8.9%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Lee Zeldin
8.3%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Russell T. Vought
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Brooke Rollins
7.6%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

None before 2029
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2029
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket
Russell T. Vought
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Indeterminate
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indeterminate
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Markwayne Mullin
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Heidi Alexander
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Heidi Alexander
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Nandy
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Nandy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucy Powell
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucy Powell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bridget Phillipson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bridget Phillipson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Bryant
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Bryant
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jonathan Reynolds
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Reynolds
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angela Eagle
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Eagle
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Duffy
2.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Todd BlancheArb
2.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Alan Campbell
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alan Campbell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Norris
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Norris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angela Rayner
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Rayner
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angela Smith
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Smith
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anneliese Midgley
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anneliese Midgley
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Douglas Alexander
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Douglas Alexander
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ed Miliband
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ed Miliband
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louise Haigh
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louise Haigh
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pat McFadden
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pat McFadden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Kinnock
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Kinnock
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Streeting
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Streeting
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yvette Cooper
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yvette Cooper
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Wright
2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Shabana Mahmood
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shabana Mahmood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
J.D. Vance
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marco Rubio on Polymarket at 9¢, sell on Kalshi at 14¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: BBC, The Prime Minister's Office, White House
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Marco Rubio
  • Christopher Phelan

Live prices for Pete Hegseth

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?". Pete Hegseth leads at 51%. Next is Marco Rubio at 28.3%. $49K has traded across 51 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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