The Prediction Markets

Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 34 days
Traded
$12.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
44 min ago
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What the markets expect

25 bps increase 77.5%

Next is 0 at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 22 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 45 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
25 bps increase
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%live, 44 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Price
77.5%
As of
Live feed, 44 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
0
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
No change
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Beth Hammack
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beth Hammack
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Cook
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Cook
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle Bowman
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Bowman
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorie Logan
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorie Logan
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Neel Kashkari
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Neel Kashkari
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1
12.4%
Polymarket 12.4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
12.4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
2
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
11.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Christopher Waller
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Waller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Barr
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Barr
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philip Jefferson
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philip Jefferson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Anna Paulson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anna Paulson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
John Williams
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Williams
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
4+
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jerome Powell
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Warsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Warsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps increase
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps decrease
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
50+ bps decrease
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25 bps increase
  • 0
  • No change

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 25 bps increase for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?". 25 bps increase leads at 77.5%. Next is 0 at 71%. $12.9M has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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