The Prediction Markets

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Nov 2026?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
47 min ago
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What the markets expect

Mark Carney 92%

Next is Xi Jinping at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 47 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mark Carney
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Xi Jinping
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Putin
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee Jae-myung
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Jae-myung
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanae Takaichi
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanae Takaichi
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Kalshi
Narendra Modi
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narendra Modi
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Kalshi
Chuck Schumer
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Schumer
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammed bin Salman
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Claudia Sheinbaum
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claudia Sheinbaum
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Kalshi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Elon Musk
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Hakeem Jeffries
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Warsh
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Warsh
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong Un
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, The White House, Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mark Carney
  • Xi Jinping
  • Vladimir Putin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Donald Trump talk to in Nov 2026?". Mark Carney leads at 92%. Next is Xi Jinping at 92%. $10K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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