The Prediction Markets

Who will join Trump at APEC in China?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2027 99%

Next is Scott Bessent at 97.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Bessent
97.3%
Polymarket 97.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
96%
Polymarket 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Cook
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Cook
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Kushner
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
39.4%
Polymarket 39.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 76.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $131 (1.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
39.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$131 (1.31x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Trump
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Witkoff
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Sam Altman
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket
Barron Trump
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barron Trump
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Zuckerberg
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Polymarket
Melania Trump
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Melania Trump
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$801
Trade this on Polymarket
Jensen Huang
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jensen Huang
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Scott Bessent
  • Elon Musk

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will join Trump at APEC in China?". Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 99%. Next is Scott Bessent at 97.3%. $30K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any portion of this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present at any meeting or event in China which Donald Trump attends during this visit and for which officials from both the government of the United States and the government of China are present. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to "No". The visit will be considered to have ended once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings or events which start after this time will be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets