The Prediction Markets

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Kash Patel 93%

Next is Tom Homan at 67%. The venues differ most on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Polymarket 4%, Kalshi 89%), a 85-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kash Patel
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Homan
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodney Scott
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodney Scott
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete HegsethArb
43.3%
Polymarket 28%polled, 45s agoKalshi 89%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

Steven Cheung
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Cooper
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Cooper
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Huckabee
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Huckabee
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Caine
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Caine
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco RubioArb
33.4%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 72%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Show 30 more outcomes
Kelly LoefflerArb
32.4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 45s agoKalshi 61%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
22¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1450 bps before fees.

Kevin Hassett
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Hassett
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Navarro
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Navarro
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard LutnickArb
29.1%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 67%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 59¢ nets 4100 bps before fees.

Bill Pulte
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Pulte
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamieson GreerArb
28.1%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 47.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 810 bps before fees.

Christopher Landau
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Landau
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Linda McMahonArb
25.6%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 65%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 14¢ and selling on Kalshi at 32¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Arb
25.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 45s agoKalshi 89%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 7240 bps before fees.

Scott TurnerArb
23.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoKalshi 45.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

Russell T. Vought
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Mehmet Oz
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mehmet Oz
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Brendan Carr
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Carr
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug BurgumArb
18.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 62%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 1620 bps before fees.

Scott BessentArb
18.6%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 62%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 53¢ nets 4520 bps before fees.

Lee ZeldinArb
12.1%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 23%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Stephen MillerArb
10.9%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 45s agoKalshi 23%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1780 bps before fees.

Todd BlancheArb
10.7%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 45s agoKalshi 33%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 1980 bps before fees.

Brooke RollinsArb
9.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 25%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Sean DuffyArb
9.4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 45s agoKalshi 26%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 1540 bps before fees.

John RatcliffeArb
9.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 24%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 710 bps before fees.

Chris WrightArb
8.5%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 29%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Doug CollinsArb
8.3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 27%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1420 bps before fees.

Mike WaltzArb
5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoKalshi 18%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Russell T. Vought
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
None before 2029
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2029
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jay Clayton
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jay Clayton
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
Markwayne Mullin
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Keith Sonderling
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keith Sonderling
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Polymarket at 7.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 80¢ (7240 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House, official government records and registries, the New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kash Patel
  • Tom Homan
  • Rodney Scott

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kash Patel for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?". Kash Patel leads at 93%. Next is Tom Homan at 67%. $13K has traded across 40 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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