The Prediction Markets

Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$2.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth 49.9%

Next is Chris Wright at 49.5%. The venues differ most on Marco Rubio (Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 93%), a 82-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pete HegsethArb
49.9%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$334K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 41¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Chris Wright
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Hassett
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Hassett
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Linda McMahon
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooke Rollins
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly Loeffler
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Navarro
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Navarro
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamieson Greer
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Collins
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodney Scott
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodney Scott
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Scott Turner
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Duffy
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brendan Carr
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Carr
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco RubioArb
31.9%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$240K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 58¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

Kash Patel
31.9%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$341K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
27.6%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$114K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Scott BessentArb
27.6%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 47s agoKalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2190 bps before fees.

Tom Homan
27%
Polymarket 7%polled, 47s agoKalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Steven Cheung
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Cooper
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Cooper
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Burgum
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristi Noem
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 28.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $351 (3.51x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.5¢
Sell Yes
21.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$351 (3.51x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Polymarket
Howard LutnickArb
24.1%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$129K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 41¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

John Ratcliffe
23.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Todd Blanche
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee Zeldin
21%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Mike Huckabee
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Huckabee
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Landau
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Landau
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Caine
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Caine
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Markwayne Mullin
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mehmet Oz
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mehmet Oz
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Pulte
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Pulte
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Russell Vought
10.4%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Stephen MillerArb
9.9%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 710 bps before fees.

Dan Scavino
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Scavino
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Sacks
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Sacks
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marco Rubio on Polymarket at 12¢, sell on Kalshi at 58¢ (4600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House, official government records and registries, the New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Chris Wright
  • Kevin Hassett

Live prices for Pete Hegseth

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?". Pete Hegseth leads at 49.9%. Next is Chris Wright at 49.5%. $2.2M has traded across 38 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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