The Prediction Markets

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$133K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Tom Homan 81.6%

Next is Kevin Hassett at 77%. The venues differ most on Markwayne Mullin (Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 8.5%), a 44-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tom Homan
81.6%
Polymarket 52%polled, 57s agoKalshi 96%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Kevin Hassett
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Hassett
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard Lutnick
62.2%
Polymarket 71%polled, 57s agoKalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 45¢ and selling on Polymarket at 70¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

Kash Patel
59%
Polymarket 54%polled, 57s agoKalshi 74%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 57¢ and selling on Kalshi at 68¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Dan Caine
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Caine
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Huckabee
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Huckabee
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Cooper
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Cooper
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Steven Cheung
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
David Sacks
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Sacks
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 35 more outcomes
Peter Navarro
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Navarro
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
36.5%
Polymarket 45%polled, 57s agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
36.2%
Polymarket 54%polled, 57s agoKalshi 8.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 8.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 52¢ nets 4310 bps before fees.

Bill Pulte
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Pulte
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Mehmet Oz
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mehmet Oz
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Duffy
35%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly Loeffler
29.2%
Kalshi 2.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
28.6%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 66%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 38¢ and selling on Kalshi at 64¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Scott Bessent
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 62%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 2.8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2420 bps before fees.

Linda McMahon
28.5%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Landau
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Landau
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristi Noem
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Polymarket
Todd Blanche
27.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Scavino
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Scavino
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Brendan Carr
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Carr
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodney Scott
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodney Scott
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Burgum
21.9%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Markwayne MullinArb
19.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8.5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 2250 bps before fees.

Before 2029
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2029
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Ratcliffe
18.4%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 24%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 2.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 25¢ nets 2210 bps before fees.

Chris Wright
17.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee Zeldin
17.6%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1410 bps before fees.

Stephen Miller
16.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 4.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4.4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 1660 bps before fees.

Russell Vought
16.3%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 8 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 2.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1210 bps before fees.

Brooke Rollins
15.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Before 2028
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamieson Greer
8.9%
Kalshi 2.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
8.1%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Collins
7.6%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Turner
7.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Before 2027
6.4%
Kalshi 6.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jay Clayton
5.2%
Kalshi 5.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jay Clayton
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$773
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Sonderling
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Sonderling
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Kratsios
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Kratsios
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Phelan
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Phelan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Markwayne Mullin on Kalshi at 8.5¢, sell on Polymarket at 31¢ (2250 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, The New York Times, The White House
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tom Homan
  • Kevin Hassett
  • Howard Lutnick

Live prices for Tom Homan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2028?". Tom Homan leads at 81.6%. Next is Kevin Hassett at 77%. $133K has traded across 45 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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