The Prediction Markets

Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 54 days
Traded
$333K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Gadi Eisenkot 97%

Next is No second mandate at 40%. The venues differ most on Benjamin Netanyahu (Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 49-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Kalshi
No second mandate
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
No second mandate
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin NetanyahuArb
13.1%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$200K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 24¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

Gadi Eizenkot
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Yossi Cohen
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yossi Cohen
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair GolanArb
3.2%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Moshe Feiglin
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Eli Cohen
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Benny Gantz
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Ofer Winter
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Yoaz Hendel
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoaz Hendel
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Gideon Sa’ar
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gideon Sa’ar
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Lapid
1.6%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Naftali Bennett
1.5%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Avigdor Lieberman
1.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Itamar Ben Gvir
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Amir Ohana
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nir Barkat
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Polymarket
Ayelet Shaked
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayelet Shaked
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Gilad Erdan
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gilad Erdan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Yariv Levin
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yariv Levin
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Benjamin Netanyahu on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 24¢ (2200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Times of Israel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gadi Eisenkot
  • No second mandate
  • Benjamin Netanyahu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gadi Eisenkot for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?". Gadi Eisenkot leads at 97%. Next is No second mandate at 40%. $333K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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