The Prediction Markets

Who will run for U.S. Senate in 2028?

Closes
Jul 1, 2028, in 20 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
42 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ben Wikler 90%

Next is Tim Burchett at 75.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 42 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Ben Wikler
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Wikler
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Burchett
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Burchett
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Dunleavy
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Dunleavy
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rich McCormick
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rich McCormick
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Jackson
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Jackson
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pat Grassley
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pat Grassley
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Lombardo
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Lombardo
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryan Steil
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bryan Steil
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ritchie Torres
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ritchie Torres
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Kemp
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Chris Sununu
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Sununu
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Massie
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Don Davis
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Don Davis
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Ducey
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Ducey
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kari Lake
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kari Lake
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Letitia James
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Letitia James
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lara Trump
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Bongino
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Bongino
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Pratt
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 42 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 42 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ben Wikler
  • Tim Burchett
  • Mike Dunleavy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will run for U.S. Senate in 2028?". Ben Wikler leads at 90%. Next is Tim Burchett at 75.5%. $4K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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