Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Pete Hegseth 38.5%
Next is Donald Trump at 28.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 39 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Pete Hegseth38.5%45%38.5% fair40¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 39 min ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Pete Hegseth38.5%Kalshi 45%(38.5% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Pete Hegseth
38.5%
45%
38.5% fair
40¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Pete Hegseth
38.5%
Kalshi 45%(38.5% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Hegseth
- Last price
- 45%
- Fair, margin removed
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $2K
Donald Trump28.2%33%28.2% fair25¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 39 min ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Donald Trump28.2%Kalshi 33%(28.2% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Donald Trump
28.2%
33%
28.2% fair
25¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Donald Trump
28.2%
Kalshi 33%(28.2% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donald Trump
- Last price
- 33%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.2%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $1K
None of these16.2%19%16.2% fair14¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 39 min ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)None of these16.2%Kalshi 19%(16.2% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
None of these
16.2%
19%
16.2% fair
14¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
None of these
16.2%
Kalshi 19%(16.2% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- None of these
- Last price
- 19%
- Fair, margin removed
- 16.2%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $565
Howard Lutnick6%7%6% fair1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 39 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Howard Lutnick6%Kalshi 7%(6% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Howard Lutnick
6%
7%
6% fair
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Howard Lutnick
6%
Kalshi 7%(6% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Howard Lutnick
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $137
Todd Blanche4.3%5%4.3% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 39 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Todd Blanche4.3%Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Todd Blanche
4.3%
5%
4.3% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Todd Blanche
4.3%
Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Todd Blanche
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $322
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.3.8%4.5%3.8% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 39 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Robert F. Kennedy Jr.3.8%Kalshi 4.5%(3.8% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3.8%
4.5%
3.8% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3.8%
Kalshi 4.5%(3.8% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
JD Vance3%3.5%3% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 39 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)JD Vance3%Kalshi 3.5%(3% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
JD Vance
3%
3.5%
3% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 39 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
JD Vance
3%
Kalshi 3.5%(3% fair)polled, 39 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 39 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Pete Hegseth
- Donald Trump
- None of these
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will the House impeach first before 2028?". Pete Hegseth leads at 38.5%. Next is Donald Trump at 28.2%. $4K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More politics markets
See all politics markets- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance31.4%$726.0M traded
- 2028 Democratic nominee for President?Jon Ossoff27%$266.0M traded
- Netanyahu out by...?June 30, 202742%$125.0M traded
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro89.9%$99.4M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?Jon Ossoff19%$83.7M traded
- 2028 Republican nominee for President?J.D. Vance31%$78.6M traded